Since mid-June, the price of short fiber has oscillated all the way up, and the main 2311 contract price once exceeded 8,000 yuan/ton. However, in September, the traditional peak season has entered the stage of recovery after the rise, after the National Day polyester staple fiber market can move up?

Polyester staple fiber manufacturers production intention has declined

In September, although entering the traditional "gold nine", but the downstream market demand has not been significantly improved, relatively, nearly pure polyester sewing thread and spunlace non-woven fabric market demand is relatively stable, profit space is relatively good, the rest of the markets continue to lack of orders, high inventory, poor profit situation. Therefore, the supply pressure of polyester staple fiber is still large in the month, and the remaining equity inventory level has continued to increase slightly.

According to Longzhong data show that in September, the equity inventory level and physical inventory water of the polyester staple fiber industry on average continued to rise slightly. As of September 22, the average amount of enterprise equity inventory was 9.36 days, an increase of 1.24 days from the same period last month, an increase of 15.27%; As of September 22, the average amount of water in the enterprise physical inventory was 15.61 days, an increase of 1.09 days from the same period last month, an increase of 83%.

Although the market price of polyester staple fiber in September as a whole fluctuated upward, its increase was still less than the cost end, so the industry profit level continued to narrow in the month. As of September 25, the average cash flow level of the month was -255.47 yuan/ton, which was 60.34 yuan/ton more than the same period in August. Continued losses, and the loss rate gradually increased, the current production intention of some polyester staple fiber enterprises has declined.

Some polyester staple fiber practitioners bullish market

For the market expectations of polyester staple fiber after the National Day, some operators' views are as follows: 37% of operators hold a range-oscillating view.

The main judgments are as follows: cost support still exists, but the demand improvement is limited, and the probability of staple fiber price maintaining interval consolidation is large under the long-short game; 32% of companies think that the downward pressure is greater. Mainly because the new order of the downstream cotton mill is not smooth, and the inventory is high, and the profit is not good; In addition, double section is coming, some terminal factory storage is not considered, start load storage is expected to decline; 31% are bullish. The main judgment basis is: the increase of PTA reduction in the later period, and the Opec + production cut will continue until the end of this year, the cost side support is still there; And next week is approaching the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday, the willingness to stock up before the holiday may be supported.

From the perspective of crude oil supply, OPEC+ maintains production cuts, of which Saudi Arabia will maintain production cuts of 1 million barrels per day before the end of December 2023, from this decision, Saudi crude oil production will be maintained at the level of 9 million barrels per day. Russia has also said it will cut its crude oil exports to the global market by 300,000 barrels per day until the end of 2023. Even if Iran's oil production increases, it is difficult to change the crude oil market supply gap caused by the production cut by the two major oil producers, and the shortage of crude oil supply is expected to continue until the fourth quarter of this year.

In summary, from the perspective of supply and demand of crude oil, the storage pattern will continue until the end of the year, the price is difficult to fall with a high probability, the cost support of downstream petrochemical varieties will always exist, and the risk above the oil price is the macro inflation transaction caused by high prices.

Secondly, downstream consumption in the peak season of the current textile terminal demand is significantly stronger, the downstream into the gold nine silver ten peak season stocking period, the supply and demand pattern improved, short fiber to keep up with the increase in raw materials, maintain their own reasonable profits.

From the perspective of the staple fiber supply side, some devices have been repaired in stages recently, the supply has contracted slightly, and the overall change is little, which has been maintained at about 86% in the past two months. At present, the cash flow of staple fiber enterprises is better, and it has maintained a positive cash flow state since May, and the construction of enterprises is expected to remain at a high level.

Based on the above analysis, we believe that rising raw material prices and improving terminal demand are the main factors driving the continuous strengthening of staple fiber prices. The strong fundamentals of crude oil are likely to continue into the fourth quarter, and the short-term downstream petrochemical industry has cost support. However, the terminal demand is expected to weaken seasonally after the National Day, when the staple fiber may gradually come under pressure, and the price performance may be weaker than the raw material, it is recommended to pay attention to the post-holiday demand.

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