Last week, polyester filament factory promotions, some downstream users bargain moderate purchase, local production and sales have improved, but most users are wait-and-see attitude, polyester inventory pressure is still there.

Inventory reaccumulation

Last week, polyester filament factory promotions, prices down 50-150 yuan/ton, some downstream users bargain moderate purchase, local production and sales have improved, but most users have a wait-and-see attitude, the field into a single general. This week, after some enterprises replenished the inventory, the market fell, and production and sales continued to be depressed.

The pre-maintenance device of polyester filament after the knot gradually heats up and restarts and increases the load, and the overall start of polyester filament continues to rise and maintain a high level. However, the downstream new single situation is general, the market as a whole is insufficient to take goods, consume more inventory in the early hand, polyester filament factory continues to accumulate, although there are preferential promotions this week, but the factory inventory pressure is not much relief, polyester inventory remains high. The overall inventory of polyester filament is 20-36 days, of which POY inventory is 22-36 days, FDY inventory is 21-31 days, and DTY inventory is 23-34 days.

Why inventory accumulation?

First, the early market demand is overdrawn. Because a large number of orders were placed before the Spring Festival, a large number of textile enterprises prepared raw materials in advance. Although there is a lot of grey cloth after the year, the dyeing factory is very busy, but almost all in the busy years of orders, some overdraft after the year of orders.

Second, the actual market order has not been issued. At present, it has entered the late March, there has not been a large number of real orders, the market is still based on sample inquiries, weaving enterprises are not willing to buy raw materials.

Third, the consequences of overcapacity have emerged. Whether it is polyester production capacity, or weaving production capacity, in the past few years have been growing rapidly, oversupply has intensified, so from the big environment, inventory will be accumulated for a long time, destocking will become an important issue in the future.

What about the future market?

In terms of the caution of weaving enterprises in the past two years, only when a large number of orders come, they are willing to buy silk more than expected, and polyester factories can effectively destock a large number of products.

From the perspective of demand, in January and February, domestic textile foreign trade exports are bright, overseas market demand is picking up, new business model cross-border e-commerce market is also growing rapidly, through the innovation of the model to stimulate new market demand, the overall demand compared to last year is growing.

From experience, last year a large number of orders began to be placed around the middle of March, considering the late Spring Festival this year, many orders were placed in advance, this year a large number of orders may be delayed, but the overall delay will not be too late. At this stage, the spot white blank market is being shipped in large quantities every day, and there is a great demand for replenishment in the future.

In any case, the fundamentals of market demand are still there, and the orders will come, and I believe it will not be too long.

Only from the perspective of macro supply and demand, the situation of excess capacity is not solved, and the short-term destocking can not reverse the trend of long-term inventory growth, and the industry's reshuffle will continue.

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