After the replenishment period on the first day of the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the PTA price continued to be weak and volatile, and the trading atmosphere of the polyester filament market resumed light again. The production and sales fell back to 6-8%, and the inventory accumulated slightly. In the short term, supply-side device repairs are good for the market, but demand is still weak.

The support of the cost end PX is still

The continued tight supply of PX provides a strong support for the cost side of PTA. In the process of shifting the price of the related products in the polyester industry chain, the performance of PX is more prominent than that of PTA, and the cracking price difference is increased from 360 yuan/ton to 690 yuan/ton. In the recent decline, PTA spot processing fees decreased by about 1,500 yuan / ton, while the PX cracking price difference fell only 90 dollars / ton. PX's strength is mainly due to the continued tight supply pattern. From March to now, PX has been destocking, accumulating destocking of about 400,000 tons. The two new installations that have just started production in Asia have been unstable this year. In addition, some PX units are still scheduled to be overhauled, while the downstream PTA units have basically completed maintenance during the year after October, and the load will remain at a high level. Therefore, we believe that PX is still expected to maintain the inventory pattern in the fourth quarter, PX price strength will also be maintained, and PTA will be strongly supported at the cost side.

More PTA equipment maintenance in October

In the middle and late September, the overhaul of PTA equipment increased. The 2.2 million tons of Yisheng Ningbo, the 1.25 million tons of Zhuhai BP and the 1.5 million tons of Jiaxing Petrochemical were overhauled. Some equipment maintenance will last until October. There will be more than 100 sets of equipment maintenance in October, including 1.5 million tons of Hong Kong Petrochemical, 1.1 million tons of Zhuhai BP, 2.2 million tons of Hengli Petrochemical, 650,000 tons of Yizheng Chemical Fiber and 2 million tons of Yisheng Hainan. If the above equipment is repaired as scheduled, the PTA supply in October will also be reduced by nearly 180,000 tons.

October will be the last round of large-scale equipment overhaul this year, and it is expected that the overhaul of PTA equipment will be significantly reduced. Fuhai Chuang PX device is about to resume production. In late October, Fuhai Chuang's remaining unrestarted device will restart. In addition, the 1 million tons of PTA plant in Sichuan has not been put into production since its completion. It is reported that it plans to start at the end of 2018. It is expected that the supply of PTA will increase from November to December.

October PTA market outlook

At present, the oil price is running at a high level. Although the PX price has dropped compared with the previous period, the current price is still high, and the cost end has support for the PTA. Downstream polyester production and sales were weak overall, demand in September was sluggish, terminal factories lacked purchasing confidence, and market sentiment was weak. PTA profits and processing fees also showed a downward trend. Overall, the recent PTA may be weakly oscillating. After the October holiday, the equipment maintenance plan will be honored, and the downstream is expected to improve. PTA futures may usher in a rebound.

Hubei Boao Synthetic Fiber Co., Ltd. specializes in production and sales: polyester staple fiber, PLA fiber, polypropylene staple fiber, Two Bi-component Fiber, polyethylene staple fiber, Polypropylene Staple Fiber, two-component staple fiber, and Polypropylene Staple Fiber.